live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Tweet Through games of Mar 13, 2016.

UC Santa Barbara

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:97.0
Current RPI:97
Expected SOS:110
Current Record:17-13
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:12-6
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-0
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:71
Expected OOC SOS:7


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
17-1356.67%97.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Santa Barbara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Nebraska Omaha (144.0)SumA59-60W100%0.0
11-16California (16.0)P12A85-67L0%0.0
11-21Oregon St. (33.0)P12H59-71L0%0.0
11-25San Francisco (228.0)WCCA61-68W100%0.0
11-29Arizona St. (99.0)P12A70-68L0%0.0
12-3USC (51.0)P12H63-75L0%0.0
12-13South Dakota St. (29.0)SumA86-68L0%0.0
12-16Vermont (126.0)AEA75-68L0%0.0
12-21Akron (34.0)MACN70-84L0%0.0
12-22Iona (77.0)MAACN76-80W100%0.0
12-28Washington (83.0)P12A78-83W100%0.0
12-30Seattle (287.0)WACA50-88W100%0.0
1-9Hawaii (80.0)BWA65-57L0%0.0
1-14Cal Poly (236.0)BWA73-76W100%0.0
1-16UC Irvine (75.0)BWH52-61L0%0.0
1-20Long Beach St. (79.0)BWH67-77L0%0.0
1-23Cal St. Northridge (280.0)BWH74-61W100%0.0
1-28Long Beach St. (79.0)BWA80-70L0%0.0
1-30UC Irvine (75.0)BWA60-76W100%0.0
2-4Hawaii (80.0)BWH64-76L0%0.0
2-6Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWH81-68W100%0.0
2-11UC Davis (281.0)BWA66-72W100%0.0
2-18UC Riverside (267.0)BWA55-65W100%0.0
2-20UC Davis (281.0)BWH62-55W100%0.0
2-25Cal St. Northridge (280.0)BWA63-78W100%0.0
2-27Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWA62-80W100%0.0
3-3UC Riverside (267.0)BWH81-55W100%0.0
3-5Cal Poly (236.0)BWH69-50W100%0.0
3-10UC Davis (281.0)BWN87-61W100%0.0
3-11Hawaii (80.0)BWN88-76L0%0.0